Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2012

For decades following the Korean war the underlying tenet for US defence policy had been on the need to be capable of fighting at least two wars at the same time.  This approach has now almost been put to an end by the economic forces facing the US and which has resulted in cuts in the defence budget.  The strategy announced by the Pentagon brings home the need for a smaller US army and Marine Corps and an aversion for wars such as those waged in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.  The new US approach will put greater emphasis on special operations forces, intelligent gathering and focus heavily on China and the Pacific.  

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2012.

Hosni Mubarak, who with the support of Western leaders ruled Egypt autocratically for thirty years watched as prosecutors closed their opening statements in the trial against him and his two children, Gamal and Alaa.  Mubarak who fainted on watching Gaddafi being bloodied and murdered by Libyans must not have been surprised that the prosecution is seeking the death sentence against him and his chief security officer, Habib el-Adly, for killing protesters.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2012

The race to see who stands and trade blows with President Obama later this year for the 2012 US presidential elections shaped up after the Iowa caucus. The race was won by the narrowest of margins early this morning by Mitt Romney, although this did not result in gains of delegates over Rick Santorum, who came second.  Both men need over a 1000 delegates to clinch the nomination but walked away with 13 and 12 respectively from Iowa.  It’s a long road ahead but on the foreign policy route the men share strong similarities.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

The announcement of plans for US military withdrawal from Iraq later this year rather than adding to President Obama’s success in the foreign policy arena and boosting his re-election prospect is now increasingly seen by his opponents for what it is: the creation of an opportunity for Iran to extend its muscles in the region.  The innumerable support provided by the West to Saddam Hussein and his Baath Party was designed as a counter-strategy to Iran.  Many of Saddam’s atrocities against the significant Shia population in the West of that country were ignored for the same reason.  With the demise of Saddam and the removal of US military might from Iraq coupled with the threat from the latter of breaking all military links with the US, the road is now paved for Iran to flex both political and military muscles.

Continentalaffairs.com

The irrelevance of Muammar Gaddafi’s death in the on-going Libya imbroglio was made poignant by the muted celebrations of leaders of the major powers behind the regime change.   Perhaps, these leaders are now glaringly aware that the passing of the Libyan dictator can neither deflect attention from their domestic problems (ranging from woeful economic performances, high inflation and high unemployment and dimming prospects of re-elections) nor hide the foreign policy hurdles created by their intervention in the Libyan strife.  The present state of Libya, no doubt, seriously contains the potential to extend the range of political agitation similar to those found in Afghanistan, Iraq or any other jurisdiction where a political faction is assisted in gaining power in a country of many tribes without a secession taking place.  

Continentalaffairs (c) 2011

Whichever way David Cameron views the new Libya this morning sooner or later he would be confronted with the emptiness of his prize and consequences of his gung-ho and hypocritical rather than ideological approach to the Libyan conflict.  The situations in Yemen and Syria are not the factors that make this view glaringly obvious.  For the trouble in the new Libya would not be dissimilar to any in which a political situation was averted so as to enable a section of a country to effect a regime change without a secession. Sooner or later in such situations either a partition takes place or a long civil war erupts between the indigenous – with the result being a partition following the strife or an autonomous regional approach put in place (but not without scores having been settled to each man's full satisfaction).  Examples from the united fight to gain independence from colonials to modern day struggle between amalgamated tribes in African countries to force a regime change before the eruption of a civil war are more than enough to support this position.

Continentalaffairs.com

Gaddafi and what remains of his forces are now surrounded in Tripoli by what was once an uncoordinated rag-tag rebel force and a NATO alliance that has refused to put troops on the ground.

The key to the campaign was the emergence of a French-armed rebel division that came out of the Nafusa mountains in the West. With Gaddafi’s forces tied up with the main rebel army in the east near Brega and separate opposition brigades out of Misurata, the Nafusa insurgents were able to march on Zawiya. NATO warplanes made it nearly impossible for Gaddafi’s armor to move to re-enforce a loyalist garrison in that city.

Syrian troops entered the city of Hama where pro-democracy protesters have held sway since the beginning of the Syrian opposition to Assad's 11-year dictatorship.  Hama was the scene of a massacre in 1982 when Assad's father, the late president Hafez al-Assad, sent his troops to crush an Islamist-led uprising, razing whole neighborhoods and killing up to 30,000 people in the bloodiest episode of Syria's modern history. 

Continentalaffairs.com

As the Libyan rebels move closer to the Tripoli citadel of Muammar Gaddafi informal plans between the rebels and UN are now being devised and arrangements rapidly put in place for post-Gaddafi Libya.  The rebels have welcomed the UN envoy, Abdul Elah al-Khatib to the eastern rebel stronghold of Benghazi as diplomatic push to end the conflict gathers pace. While NATO continues to hammer Gaddafi's forces around Libya, striking twice in central Tripoli, and Britain refuses to countenance a let up during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in August, hopes for a negotiated settlement are now growing.  The EU’s view  is that al- Khatib should try to persuade warring parties in Libya to accept an informal plan that envisages a ceasefire followed by the creation of an interim power-sharing government, but with no role for Gaddafi. 

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

The resumption of the Six-Party talks on denuclearisation in the Korean peninsula gathered momentum following Hilary Clinton’s invitation to North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kae-gwan to New York toward the end of next week.  The visit will allow Kae-gwan to meet with an interagency team of U.S. officials for discussions on the next steps necessary towards a resumption of the talks.

Professor Hanns W. Maull

What is happening in Tunisia and Egypt, and the wider unrest across the whole Arab world from Yemen to Sudan, shows that optimistic assumptions of Western policies about political stability on the southern and eastern shore of the Mediterraneans rested on foundations of sand. For Europe, it is also a severe indictment of European "neighbourhood" policies towards the Arab world. For about half a century, the European Union has tried to export socio-economic and political development in this adjacent region. The results have been, to put it mildly, exceedingly modest – particular when held against the impressive transformations the EU did achieve in Central Eastern Europe and even in the Balkans (although that particular task has not yet been completed fully, as we have just been reminded with regard to Kosovo, there certainly has been significant progress).

Solomon Johnson, Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011.
Mohammed Bouazizi, the 26 year-old Tunisian, who set himself ablaze for lack of employment opportunities and subsequently died, would probably not have imagined that his action would lead to the overthrow of the despot who controlled his country and triggered a revolution that went beyond his country to other Arab nations.  Bouazizi’s action also revealed the dichotomous approach of Western nations to countries and regions outside their sphere.  If Mohammed Bouazizi had carried out his self immolation in another part of the world, for example Cote d’ Ivoire or Sudan, it would have been doubtful if his death would have had the same impact on foreign policy as it does now. 

Godfrey Eloho, Continentalaffairs.com 2011(c).

The changing face of the crisis in Libya once again reminds us that the colours of a chameleon are truly for survival and not for beauty.  First, we had the relegation of the relevant clause in UNSC Resolution 1970, imposing an arms embargo on Libya, as no longer fit for purpose simply because the military intervention provided for in UNSCR 1973 seems not to be doing what the world awaits and expects: the removal of Gaddafi.  Then the news of Moussa Kousa enjoying the hospitality of the British government in a plane ride devoid of other passengers that landed at Farnborough airport.  Finally, it now increasingly appears that Gaddafi remaining in power will be the sole test of whether Britain and France can justify their approach to the conflict and this may go a long way in shaping their domestic political futures.  Opinions polls in Britain shows that majority are not in favour of the engagement.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011.

Western television viewers are accustomed to particular scenes which tell them without words but through pictures of particular countries, regions or cities.  For the Middle East, it’s about Palestinian children throwing stones at Israeli soldiers and the soldiers subsequently chasing after them; Africa usually provide children suffering from malnutrition or gun totting child soldiers walking through jungles, for Indians it is about a crowded slow moving train with people clambering within and outside it and over themselves’ and for large parts of Latin America it’s all about slums or children scavenging through heaps of refuse.  The new familiar picture of Libya has now added to these litanies.  The scene is always of government troops and rebels exchanging artilleries until the sudden appearance of NATO-led warplanes and then it’s all clouded and back to the newscaster. 

Femi Alese, Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011.

The growing strength of the BRICS' countries (the five fastest growing economies of Brazil, Russia China, India and South Africa) comes to the fore again following their recently concluded Third Summit, which included South Africa, the largest economy in Africa, and expanded the group’s geopolitical significance.  A significant aspect of the meeting in China’s Hanya Province, is the proposal that these nations may establish a new system of trade between them that will allow for the use of local currencies when trading within the BRICS’ group.

This position may signal the beginning of the end of the US dollar as the supreme currency of international trade.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011.

Old habits die hard and few things bring North and South Korea together than Japan. Despite, worldwide sympathy, contribution to aid from South Koreans (and an impending trilateral talk with China to assist the Japanese economy) and, of course, domestic chaos at home, Japan still found time to remind (or threaten) the South Koreans with territorial claims over the islets of Dokdo (in South Korea) and Takeshima (in Japan).  The claims of ownership and illegal rights of the South Koreans which were depicted in school notebooks once again highlight the strength of this long-running and generational feud and the volatility that underlies a significant region of the world.  Irrespective of the format of the claim looking innocuous, the South Koreans have considered deploying frigates close to the islets.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

The Obama administration’s capture of Osama Bin Laden could not have come at a better time politically and, perhaps signal a deserving reward for his approach in fighting terrorism.  The 9/11 attacks have had an effect not only in the United States but the world at large in dealing with principles such as the authority of the state and the liberty of the subject and between public responsibility and private conscience. The latter is most reflective in separating a peaceful religion, Islam, from terrorists who have used it to wage personal crusade against their fellow men and the former, through the handling of many measures contained in the US Patriot Act (including frowning on the use of torture) distinguishes the Obama approach to US homeland security from those of his predecessor.

We have had significant problems with hackers and should be back with posts this week.

Continentalaffairs (c) 2011 - The tragedy of the situation in Libya appears to be that the Arab Spring in that country did not happen before those in Bahrain, Yemen and, particularly, Syria.  If Syria had come first what would have been the Sarkozy-Cameron approach to the notion of Responsibility to Protect?  Would they have successfully ‘‘bounced’’ Obama into backing their military action?  Would it have seemed reasonable for the UN Security Council to adopt Resolution 1973?  Could any expert of international affairs have claimed that Gaddafi’s Libya was less virtuous or more venal than Syria, Bahrain, Yemen and Saudi Arabia in quelling political demonstrations? These are justifiable questions in view of the approaches taken to similar dictatorships and brutalities within the same sphere of the world. 

Continentalaffaitrs.com (c) 2011

That the terror group, Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsular (AQAP) now operates in Yemen is no longer news, what is alarming is the extent of the territories it has been able to claim in only a few weeks of active operations.  AQAP now controls Yemen's southeastern provinces of Shabwa and Abyan (with a city within the latter being converted as the capital of its Taliban-like Islamic emirate). 

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

Mitt Romney becomes the first of our prediction of US presidential candidates to throw his hat into the ring.  The former Governor of Massachusetts finally declared he was standing for the Republican presidential nomination.  If presidential contests resembled boxing matches it would be easy to predict that since McCain knocked out Romney to face Obama and Obama trounced McCain, then he should have no problem discarding Romney.  History, however, has shown otherwise.  Reagan lost to Ford, who in turn lost to Carter, who then lost four years later to Reagan.  Our interest, however, is on Romney’s foreign policy approach given that Obama has for almost three years being on the world stage.

Continentalaffairs.com 2011 (c)
Ollanta Humala (pictured left) finally claimed the Peruvian presidential election.  As we highlighted in our global elections article for 2011 a victory for Humala poses many questions for the fastest growing economy in South America.  The Left-wing former army commander Humala, 48, has in the past promised nationalisation but now seems to have moderated his anti-capitalist views.  If we go by the happenings on the markets, Humala’s change of view has not satisfied investors entirely because Peru’s currency PEN=PE and stock market, IGRA, plunged in recent weeks whenever polls showed Humala gaining ground, and they are expected to fall for most of this week because of the outcome of the election.

continentalaffairs.com

NATO’s 90-day extension in Libya is now rapidly moving towards a certain finalization.  Norway and the Netherlands have put firm dates on withdrawal.  The Norwegians will reduce fighter jet contribution in Libya from six to four planes and withdraw completely from the NATO-led operation by August 1.   The Dutch, one of the five allies, lectured about their contribution-deficit to the alliance by Robert Gates, extended their participation until the end of September but will not allow their fighter jets patrolling the no-fly zone to engage in airstrikes.  The Canadians will stay too until the end of the same September.

j Jaswant Singh (c) 2011

Continentalaffairs.com

As the sand-storm season in Libya gathers power and pace, the bright early colors of the Arab spring are fading alongside the hopes and promise of change for peoples too long suppressed by despotic and inert governments. Despite more than three months of aerial attacks on Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi’s troops, a stalemate of sorts seems to have set in. Yet another “liberal intervention” appears to have lost its way.  The hopes that animated the intervention in Libya always seemed a bit out of place in a landscape steeped in ancient memories. Writing recently in The New York Review of Books about the coastal Libyan city of Derna, Nicholas Pelham described how between “the turquoise Mediterranean and the Green Mountains lie the ruins of the forums and churches Byzantium left behind.”

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

Just when the caterpillar thought its life was over it suddenly turned into a butterfly.  This uplifting and crude saying applies to the on-going debacle that is popular referred to as the Libyan civil war.  

We begin this North African theatre of mirth not with the African Union making another public statement proposing another way forward for the crisis and urging the parties to be realistic in their negotiations but with Dictator Obiang Nguemma of Equatorial Guinea lambasting the International Criminal Court (ICC) for focusing solely on African dictators.  For obvious reasons Obiang did not dwell on whether Africans are happy to see their dictators in the dock at the Hague or address why Africans should entertain dictators or put up with despotic rulers.  Still the fun did not end here, as it was soon revealed that Obiang's spent 600 million euros to build the site for the recently held 2-day AU summit and more millions on fleets of cars, equipment and other needed material.  Opposition leader, Placido Mico, lamented that the location and opulence of Sipopo (a vast, seaside complex of conference centres, a hotel and villas outside the capital Malabo) did not take into consideration that 80 percent of the population experience daily a high level of poverty and have no access to education, hospitals and running water in their homes. 

Continentalaffairs.com (C) 2011 - As the Venezuelan national soccer team moves a step closer to being declared the continental soccer champions in Copa America 2011, the familiar use of such a momentous occasion for political propaganda appears missing because of Hugo Chávez’s battle with cancer in a Cuban hospital.  

The former soldier, who regards Cuba's Fidel Castro as his mentor, is a controversial figure in the West because of his persistent criticism of colonialism, imperialistic conduct and condemnation of US foreign policy. On the domestic front, Chávez's socialist government make widespread use of nationalizations and expropriations to redistribute wealth.  The Venezuelan leader’s approach, however, commands admiration from nearby countries and presidents such Juan Evo Morales in Bolivia and newly elected Olanta Humala in Peru who see him as an idol.

Before his recent plight, Chávez was planning for a bid for another six-year term at the helm, next year.  He remains the only declared candidate for the election but questions inevitably will be asked about his fitness to run in light of his illness.  At best, his campaign will be likely to be shorter and far more subdued than expected; at worst, he may be forced to drop out.  Whatever the future holds for Chávez, the opposition at home and those he had tormented in the West since he took power in 1999 now sense the beginning of the demise of the Venezuelan strongman.  

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

The quest to mend fences between the two Koreans and hasten a resumption of the Six-Party talks continues to gather  pace as nuclear negotiators from both Japan (Shinsuke Sugiyama) and South Korea (Wi Sung-lac) reiterated that a precondition for nuclear discussions is for the two Koreas to establish a dialogue between them.  The last discussions between the parties took place in 2008 in Beijing but relations have worsened. China, however, has been instrumental in keeping hopes for the Six-Party talks alive through encouraging North Korea to publicly express a desire to resume discussions.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

A new currency coin in the international community on the Libyan situation is the notion of loss of legitimacy.  Recently any discussions on Gaddafi remaining or leaving power is usually started or concluded with the quote ‘’Gaddafi has lost all legitimacy and must relinquish power immediately."  The most recent usage of the quote comes from the European Union as it urged cooperation with the International Criminal Court over arrest warrants for the Libyan tyrant and his son, Saif al Islam Gaddafi and Abdullah al-Sanussi. 

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

The significance of India as a countervailing power for the West in the impending domination of global economic sphere by China comes to the fore again as United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton entered the second of her three- day visit to India with a scheduled  "strategic dialogue" talks with Indian leaders.  The talks would focus on terrorism, civil nuclear cooperation and the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan.  

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

The long running dispute between Cambodia and Thailand over the Preah Vihear temple gathered a temporary peaceful position through the International Court of Justice ordering  both countries to “immediately withdraw” all military personnel from a newly-created demilitarised zone surrounding the temple.  Both governments not only welcomed this part of the decision but also accepted to comply with ICJ’s requirement they remove their military personnel from the provisional area “in order to prevent irreparable damage” to the temple and people around it.

The temple which borders both Cambodia and Thailand and was first built in the 9th century has been a source of conflict for both countries since Cambodia’s independence.  Part of the problem could be put down to the colonial French initiative which initiated an agreement with Thailand on the basis of a map which moves the temple away along from its watershed on the Thai side to Cambodia.  The Thai for many years, even though presented with several opportunities, did not challenge the veracity of the map or claim active ownership of the temple.  A 1962 judgment by the International Court of Justice awarded the temple, to the Cambodians. Subsequently, Thailand queried the decision and highlighted the influence of the United States in constructing the judgment in favour of Cambodia.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

Anyone wondering about the disparity of the Western approach to the Arab Spring debacle would do well to visit the website of the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has revealed documents which indicates that NATO was not prepared to intervene militarily if the Soviet Union had invaded Poland during the period of its Martial Law.

The notion of balance of power or in this case the bi-polarity of East and West reveals that the scramble for power by nation states still dominate any notion of supranational approach at crucial stages of the struggle for power on the international scene.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

Preventing the cats from mixing with the pigeons is an experiment that is hardly carried out but of which posterity might indicate carries with it some troublesome omens.  Thus aware that US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton was leaving China for Bali (where Asean is holding its 44th Annual Regional Forum (ARF) of its foreign ministers), both China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) hastened an arrangement to deal with the on-going dispute over territorial ownership of the various islands in the South China Sea.  The United States and China have been at loggerheads over the latter’s claim of the Sea and its threatening and aggressive activity towards competing claims of ownership particularly by Thailand and Vietnam.  While other countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei and all other parties only claim areas near their shores, it is only China and Taiwan that claim to own the whole of the South China Sea – with its potential for natural gas and oil.

Continentalaffairs.com (c) 2011

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Libyan counterpart Abdul Ati al-Obeidi have met to discuss finding a political solution to the crisis in the North African country.  The meeting which was instigated by Libya specifically focused on finding a way to persuade the Benghazi rebels to come around the table and find a way forward. Lavrov, on the Russian Foreign Ministry website emphasised that the " primary" task is to immediately stop the bloodshed and get into political tracks.  He further calls on Tripoli as a way to pushing for early talks on future democratic arrangements in Libya, to confirm its intention to follow the UN Security Council resolutions 1970 and 1973.